Future risks for the UAE
Domestic risks, including the governance system, External risks, including tensions with Iran, competition with Saudi Arabia.
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is widely regarded by many analysts and international institutions as one of the most stable countries in the Middle East. This stability stems from a combination of centralized and strong governance by the Al Nahyan family, macro benefits derived from oil and gas exports, high revenues, active diplomacy at regional and global levels, and internal security control and monitoring systems. Over the past decade the UAE has been able to secure a firm position among Gulf states by relying on these advantages. However, in the five-year horizon up to 2030 the country faces a set of political risks that could threaten its relative stability.
These risks can be examined at two levels:
- Domestic risks, including the governance system, human rights, migration and demographic composition, and socio-economic stability.
- External risks, including tensions with Iran, competition with Saudi Arabia, the Palestine crisis, and sensitive relations with the United States and China.
Domestic Political Risks
Governance structure and the transfer of power
The UAE is composed of seven emirates, the largest and most powerful of which is Abu Dhabi, which acts as the political center of the country. The governmental system is a federal absolute monarchy in which the transfer of power is hereditary and, in practice, outside the will of the general public. After the death of Sheikh Khalifa in 2022, power was transferred without any significant crisis to Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed (MBZ). In March 2023, Sheikh Khalid bin Mohammed, his son, was appointed Crown Prince of the Emirate of Abu Dhabi — an appointment that reflected a deliberate plan to ensure the continuity of family rule. Contemporary planning of the emirate indicates a precise design for the continuation of dynastic dominance, demonstrating cohesion in the ruling circle and an expectation that political stability will continue at least until 2030. Nevertheless, over-reliance on a small, closed decision-making circle constitutes a hidden structural risk.
Political repression and human rights
The political structure is based on a tribal/autocratic model in which elites outside the ruling circle have limited ability to participate meaningfully in decision-making. The Federal National Council functions mostly in an advisory capacity and lacks independent legislative power; judges and prosecutors are appointed by the government, and the judiciary operates under full government oversight.
According to Human Rights Watch in 2024:
- There are reportedly 94 political prisoners in the UAE, including more than 50 defendants in a particular high-profile case.
- Ahmed Mansoor, a well-known activist, has reportedly been held in solitary confinement for more than six years.
- The government has used advanced surveillance technologies such as the Pegasus spyware and applications like ToTok to monitor citizens and journalists.
- Revisions to criminal laws have criminalized public criticism of the government and expressions of dissatisfaction on social media.
Political repression and human rights
The political structure is based on a tribal/autocratic model in which elites outside the ruling circle have limited ability to participate meaningfully in decision-making. The Federal National Council functions mostly in an advisory capacity and lacks independent legislative power; judges and prosecutors are appointed by the government, and the judiciary operates under full government oversight.
According to Human Rights Watch in 2024:
- There are reportedly 94 political prisoners in the UAE, including more than 50 defendants in a particular high-profile case.
- Ahmed Mansoor, a well-known activist, has reportedly been held in solitary confinement for more than six years.
- The government has used advanced surveillance technologies such as the Pegasus spyware and applications like TiTok to monitor citizens and journalists.
- Revisions to criminal laws have criminalized public criticism of the government and expressions of dissatisfaction on social media.
